Why Copper Fell After the US Midterms, and What It Means for UK Scrap

Copper has had a rough week, and the cause is in US politics, not the metal itself. Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange fell 2.7% over the week after the US midterms, its steepest weekly drop since March, and touched its lowest level since July.

Why the midterms moved copper

Democrats made big gains and took control of Congress. Markets read that as bad news for two things that had been holding copper up.

The first is tariffs. The US had floated duties on imported refined copper, proposed at 15% from January 2027 rising to 30% in 2028. That led to heavy stockpiling in US warehouses, with Comex stocks now more than double a year ago. With Congress shifting and affordability a growing political issue, traders think aggressive copper tariffs are now less likely. If the tariffs fade, there is less reason to ship metal into the US, and that metal could flow back to the rest of the world.

The second is demand. Copper’s big 2026 rally leaned on AI and data centre building. TD Securities warned that Democratic gains could mean more resistance to data centre construction in many states, so AI-driven copper demand could fall short of forecasts. Copper also fell alongside tech stocks, which shows how much the rally depended on that story.

It isn’t all one way

Copper bounced on Monday, with LME copper up 0.9%. Supply is still tight. Mine output has been disrupted, and in China import premiums have hit records while smelters struggle to source concentrate and scrap. ING cautioned that the bounce doesn’t necessarily mark the end of the correction, so prices could stay choppy.

What it means for UK scrap

Copper is priced globally, so US politics reaches your yard gate within days. The new Congress doesn’t take office until January, and the tariff decision still rests with the White House, so the picture could change again. Over the year copper is still strongly up, and the pull on scrap from tight supply hasn’t gone away.

For trade sellers the practical point is that the price moves weekly, and sometimes more often. If you have copper offcuts, cable or old boards sitting around, find out what it’s worth now rather than waiting on a move that could go either way. List it on ScrapBays, free to use, and let buyers quote their best price.

Sources: MINING.COM (TD Securities) · MINING.COM (worst week since March) · Saxo · SMM