Analysis: Where UK scrap goes next as the EU narrows its export routes

The UK exports a lot of scrap, and the routes the wider market relies on are being reshaped. The EU’s draft list of approved non-OECD destinations would restrict EU metal exports from May 2027. The UK sits outside those rules, but the global market it sells into will change around it.

What the export data shows

Aluminium scrap: UK exports were 217,611 tonnes in January–April 2026, up 9% on the same period of 2025. The full-year 2025 total was 623,584 tonnes. (AL Circle)
Where it went: India took 60,054 tonnes (down 1%) and Hong Kong 34,666 tonnes (down 4%). China took 20,261 tonnes (down 15%) and Germany 10,206 tonnes (down 8%). (AL Circle)
The US surge: Shipments to the US rose 174% to 17,230 tonnes. AL Circle ties this to Section 232 tariffs on primary aluminium, which exempt scrap. (AL Circle)

What’s changing in the EU

The European Commission assessed 32 countries and territories. 24 applied to receive metal waste, and only 5 are proposed: Moldova, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia and Ukraine. 19 would not be authorised for metals. (SteelOrbis)
Authorisation would be per waste stream, not blanket approval.
BIR has warned that the restrictions could disrupt the market. (Argus)

Key dates

9 Oct 2026: BIR member input deadline
16 Oct 2026: EU public consultation closes
21 Nov 2026: First list due for adoption
21 May 2027: Restrictions begin

Why it matters for the UK

UK exporters aren’t bound by the EU list, so their routes stay open.
EU material blocked from non-OECD markets has to go somewhere else. That could mean more supply competing for the same buyers, or more EU material staying in the EU.
The UK is also building electric arc furnace capacity. The UK Steel Strategy projects a large rise in domestic scrap demand and has no export restrictions, so the pull between exporting and keeping scrap at home will keep growing.

What it means for yards and buyers

Yards: Overseas demand is the main alternative to domestic mills. Tighter EU access to the same markets could change export pricing, so watch buyer bids rather than assuming current premiums hold.
Buyers: Competition for material could rise if UK scrap becomes more attractive overseas, or if EU material is redirected. Direct supplier relationships matter more in that kind of market.
Both: Aluminium shows how fast flows can shift. The US went from a minor destination to a growing one in a year.